Energy Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050

　　Being the public resource for the survival of human beings and the development of society, energy is the material guarantee for national and regional economic development. Energy is not only economic resource, but also strategic and political resource. The sustainable development of energy directly influences China’s security and modernization. However, owing to the prolonged utilization of tremendous amount of fossil fuel, greenhouse gases are emitted and accumulated in the atmosphere. This exacerbates greenhouse effect, which leads to the significant increase in the frequency of natural disasters and extreme climate conditions, and threatens the sustainable development of human society, and hence challenges the energy structure with fossil fuel as its core. In such a condition, China appeals to the development of new and renewable energy and establishment of efficient, economical, clean and sustainable energy supply system, which will push forward the revolution of technology and advancement of civilization and society.

　　To establish an efficient, economical, clean and sustainable energy supply system which meets the demand of a low-carbon economy, solving science and technology problems is the first priority. Energy has the characteristics of large-investment, multi-link, long-cycle and strong-inertia, once the direction is incorrect or the technology lags behind, the passive situation of being constrained by foreign technology will occur in the following decades. Therefore, to ensure the sustainable development of China’s economy and society as well as our modernization, China should establish an innovative energy system that suits China’s development demand and characteristics, seize the opportunities of the alteration from fossil fuel to new and renewable energy, narrow the gap between domestic technology and the foreign advanced technology, enter the front rank of global energy technology, and hence support the development of Chinese Sustainable Energy System as well as the formation of Chinese Energy Technology Innovation System.

　　According to the unified deployment by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Energy Strategy Research Group of CAS made up of more than 30 experts was established. From the embodiment of strategic direction and a certain degree of feasibility requirements, the research group drew the roadmaps for future development based on that of the developed countries. Three different periods of development were considered, 2008—2020, 2021—2035 and 2036—2050 respectively, as the time nodes, and set up Energy Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 with the logical pattern of “demand of energy development→important energy technology issues→important energy technology direction→technology development roadmap→general deployment for energy technology innovation→guarantee for system construction”.

　　For the important energy technology direction and the choice of roadmaps, Energy Strategy Research Group followed five fundamental principles: ① independent R&D technologies which can no longer meet current need, are to be digested and absorbed; ② technologies with promising future only applied in a small scale are to be focused on, researched and to strive for a breakthrough; ③ technologies with significant demand in the future but are still under research and discovery are to be independently innovated and researched; ④ technologies with mature and large-scale application, such as hydroelectric power, will not be taken into account; ⑤ for the various factors that affect the development of energy technology, the pathway will follow the sequence of priority as “resource – contribution – environment – innovation – feasibility – economy”.

　　Energy Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050 outlines 10 major cutting-edge technologies for development of energy science and new national energy industry in order to meet the needs of economic and social development. The 10 major cutting-edge technologies are the highly-efficient non-fossil-fuel ground transportation technology, the clean and high-added-value coal utilization technology, the power system security and stability technology, the biomass liquid fuel and raw material technology, large-scale power generation technology from renewable energy resources , enhanced geothermal systems technology for deep geothermal resources, hydrogen utilization technology, natural gas hydrate development and utilization technology, the new nuclear power and nuclear waste treatment technology, and the potential energy technology. 

　　Various energy technology obstacles should be overcome in different periods from 2009 to 2050. China’s energy science and technology will witness a qualitative leap with 40 years’ efforts: National energy industry with Chinese characteristics will be established based on independent intellectual property and provide technical support for energy sustainable development. Great effort should be made to break through key technological barriers, and to advance relevant technology integration, test demonstration and commercialized application. The concrete strategic steps are as follows.

　　Around 2020, breakthroughs should be made in clean coal technology to establish an industrial system for coal-based energy and chemical engineering, in rail transportation technology and advanced electric vehicles technology to establish a system of commercialized use of electric transportation. While taking the full use of the existing advanced hydropower and EHV power grid, breakthroughs should be made in solar thermal power, solar PV power and wind power generation technology, in order to set up a technological and industrial system with renewable energy as a major source.

　　Around 2035, breakthroughs in the technology of biomass to liquid fuels should be made and applied to commercial use. Based on the breakthroughs in high-capacity low-loss electric power transmission technology, scattered, unstable renewable energy grid-connected power generation and distributed grid technology, the share of power equipment security protection technology and new grid security protection technology will reach 90%. A new, distributed and independent micro-grid power system with solar power and wind power generation will be initially established. And breakthroughs in the key technology of new nuclear power generation and nuclear waste processing should be made to establish an advanced nuclear power industrial system with Chinese characteristics.

　　Around 2050, breakthroughs in the technology of natural gas hydrate, hydrogen, fuel cell car, deep geothermal power and ocean energy generation should be made in order to shape a diversified energy mix including fossil energy, renewable energy, and nuclear power, and thus establish an innovation-based energy industry system with Chinese characteristics.

　　Energy technology has features of cross discipline, long cycle and big inertia, therefore, the achievement of roadmap relies on great progresses on time sequence, deployment of key areas, linkage between fundamental theory and technology application, and coordinative development between technological competitiveness and manufacturing industry. To ensure remarkable achievements, China must fully arouse the initiatives and creativities, promote high efficient allocation and integration of energy technology resources in the whole society, and establish an energy innovation system with enterprises as its mainstay which combined with production, education and research, to improve the capability of China’s independent energy innovation. China needs to strengthen its formulation of policies, regulations standards and research, to strengthen platform of personnel, science and technology, as well as to facilitate protection of investment measures, and to promote energy technology development and innovative system.